Did Sweden's laid-back strategy against the coronavirus succeed?

Open bars, open schools, no mandatory face masks: What sounds like a lockdown sceptic's wildest dream is reality in Sweden. While their exceptional strategy has been widely questioned, decreasing numbers of new infections necessitate a closer look at the shortcomings and successes of the Swedish model.

More than half a year after the first coronavirus infection was registered in Europe, it is still too early for a final evaluation of Sweden's health strategy.

Economically speaking, the country has done fairly well. The Swedish gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 8.6% in the second quarter, a slump unprecedented in the last 40 years, but much less than the Eurozone's record drop by 12.1% in the same period.

Spain saw one of the sharpest drops with its GDP falling by 18.5%. Italy experienced a GDP slump of 12.4%. And even the economical powerhouse Germany witnessed its GDP shrinking by 10.1%, 1.5 per cent more than Sweden.

Health-wise, however, the picture is quite different. The small country with its 10 million inhabitants has registered about 5,800 deaths and 83,000 infections since the coronavirus first appeared there in late January. In April, the daily death toll was over 100.

In relation to population size, the overall death toll is about five times that of Denmark or Germany, and the fifth highest in Europe. And after tiny Luxemburg, Sweden currently has the highest number of infections per 100,000 inhabitants in the European Union, European Economic Area and Britain.

Care facilities

Anders Tegnell, chief epidemiologist with the Public Health Agency and creator of Sweden's coronavirus strategy, still believes in the Swedish model. He does acknowledge one shortcoming though: "We know that our big failure has been in the area of long-term care facilities."

Regional authorities should have been better prepared. This way there would have been fewer deaths, he told German newspaper Bild.

The situation is however improving. Since late June the number of infections has been going down rapidly with only around 100 new cases a day. There are fewer coronavirus patients in intensive care units and the daily death toll remains low, as Tegnell says.

Still, per capita numbers paint a different picture, with new infections in the last two weeks occurring about twice as often as in Germany.

One aspect that many seem to miss is that life in Sweden did not just go on as usual, either.

"People are not stupid in Sweden," statistician Ola Rosling recently told the BBC. "Even if the authorities are not as strict, the general public has definitely changed their way of behaving and that's what really matters."

Social distancing and travel

Though schools, restaurants, shops, bars and other public places remained open even at the pandemic's peak, the Public Health Agency has time and time again urged the public to maintain social distancing and avoid unnecessary travel.

Similarly, face masks were not deemed mandatory but public gatherings were limited to 50 participants, visits in care homes forbidden and self service in restaurants and bars suspended. Furthermore, Tegnell extended his recommendation to work from home to autumn.

Sweden's target of herd immunity has not been reached so far. The idea was that the spread of the virus would slow down when enough people became immune from either having been infected or being vaccinated.

Infectiologist Bjorn Olsen never believed in the Swedish strategy. The Uppsala University professor is one of 22 scientists who have been harshly criticising Tegnell for months.

Too many people had to die too early because the virus was able to spread uncontrollably, he says. Strict measures and testing early on could have helped.

As Olsen recently put it on Sommar, a popular annual radio programme: "The lockdown train has left the station. We lost the ticket on the tracks in mid-March already."